BDS卫星差分码偏差稳定性分析及其短期预报     

梅登奎  闻德保 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(7):746-750

利用MGEX(multi-GNSS experiment)发布的BDS卫星差分码偏差(differential code bias, DCB)产品，比较分析不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB产品的稳定性变化特性，并采用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)时间序列预测模型，实现不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB的短期预报。结果表明，在太阳活动高年，BDS卫星DCB日解值稳定度、月稳定性均明显低于太阳活动低年，且不同卫星星座类型的BDS卫星DCB稳定性也存在差异；ARIMA时间序列预报结果与MGEX发布值符合程度较好，优于多项式拟合法预测结果。  相似文献   

Quantifying sand delivery to deep water during changing sea-level: Numerical models from the Quaternary Brazos Icehouse continental margin     

Oriol Falivene  Bradford E. Prather  John Martin 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1711-1733

Sequence stratigraphy for clastic continental margins predicts the development of sand-rich turbidite deposits during specific times in relation to base-level cycles. It is now widely understood that deltas can extend to the shelf-edge forced by high sediment flux and/or base level, providing a direct connection to transfer sediment and sand to the slope and basin floor even during high base level periods. Herein, we build a stratigraphic forward model for the last 120 kyr of the fluvio-deltaic to deep-water Brazos system (USA) where sediment partitioning along an Icehouse continental margin can be evaluated. The reduced-complexity stratigraphic forward model employs geologically constrained input parameters and mass balance. The modelled architecture is consistent with the location of depositional units previously mapped in the shelf. Sand bypasses the shelf and upper slope between 35 to 15 kyr before present and only about 20%–30% of all the sediment and sand supplied to the system is transferred to deep water. Several scenarios based on the initial Brazos model investigate the relationships between base level and deep-water sand ratio (DWSR). DWSR is defined as the relative amount of sand transferred to the deep-water portions of the system subdivided by the total sand input to the model. Linear correlations between DWSR and base level change rates or base level are very poor. Short-term variability due to local processes (for example avulsions) is superimposed to the long-term trends and mask the base level signal. DWSR for an entire base-level cycle is mainly controlled by the proportion of time the delta stays docked at the shelf-edge. Stratigraphic forward models are useful to complement field observations and quantify how different processes control stratigraphy, which is important for making predictions in areas with limited information.  相似文献   

基于GIS的盐城国家级自然保护区生态安全评价（英文）     

李海萍  高戈  李菁 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(1):38-49

本研究利用遥感和GIS技术,分析盐城自然保护区1983–2018年的景观格局变化,建立了基于区域自然-社会-经济复合生态系统安全格局的评价指标体系,分析了生态安全变化的空间特征和成因。结果表明,1983–2018年由于人类活动加剧,研究区内景观格局变化强烈,从以自然景观为主发展到自然景观与人工景观并存。在整体生态安全方面,目前保护区的生态安全状况不容乐观,从保护区丹顶鹤的生存状态看,保护区总体上还是适宜丹顶鹤栖息的,但由于人类活动的增加以及政策的调整,丹顶鹤的栖息地呈现破碎化并向核心区和缓冲区等局部区域聚集。我们应从管理、政策制定以及当地居民的环境保护意识上增加宣传和投入,并相应减少保护区内人类活动的强度。  相似文献   

时域反射仪（TDR）测定土壤含水量标定曲线评价与方案推荐     

徐玲玲  高彩虹  王佳铭  金会军  吴青柏  DYCK Miles  何海龙 《冰川冻土》2020,42(1):265-275

时域反射仪（Time Domain Reflectometry）可用于室内和田间快速、 准确、 自动测定土壤含水量， 是目前应用最广泛的土壤含水量测定方法之一。适宜的土壤含水量标定曲线（即土壤表观介电常数和土壤含水量之间的关系）是TDR准确测定土壤含水量的关键。目前文献中存在大量的土壤含水量标定曲线， 但尚未有研究对这些标定曲线进行系统的验证和分析评价。因此， 它们的准确性和适用范围尚不明晰， 严重影响到与土壤含水量测定相关的研究。通过查阅大量国内外文献， 收集整理了一系列土壤含水量标定曲线的经验公式（19个）和半经验半物理模型（5个）， 并利用大量的文献实测数据对其进行综合评价。同时运用均方根差（RMSE）， 平均误差（AD）， 纳什效率系数（NSE）等三个指标对比分析和评价这些标定曲线的准确性和可靠性。研究结果表明： 经验公式中Topp、 Roth（1992）2、 Jacobosen、 Yoshikawa2、 Alharathi模型和半经验模型中Malicki1公式及其修订模型综合性能较好。研究成果可为利用TDR准确测定土壤含水量及土壤含水量标定曲线的选择提供参考和指导。  相似文献   

A plasticity constitutive model for unsaturated,anisotropic, nonexpansive soils     

Panagiotis Sitarenios  Michael Kavvadas 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(4):435-454

The paper describes and evaluates an incremental plasticity constitutive model for unsaturated, anisotropic, nonexpansive soils (CMUA). It is based on the modified Cam-Clay (MCC) model for saturated soils and enhances it by introducing anisotropy (via rotation of the MCC yield surface) and an unsaturated compressibility framework describing a double dependence of compressibility on suction and on the degree of saturation of macroporosity. As the anisotropic and unsaturated features can be activated independently, the model is downwards compatible with the MCC model. The CMUA model can simulate effectively: the dependence of compressibility on the level of developed anisotropy, uniqueness of critical state independent of the initial anisotropy, an evolving compressibility during constant suction compression, and a maximum of collapse. The model uses Bishop's average skeleton stress as its first constitutive variable, favouring its numerical implementation in commercial numerical analysis codes (eg, finite element codes) and a unified treatment of saturated and unsaturated material states.  相似文献   

轨道尺度亚洲气候演化机理的数值模拟:历史与展望     

石正国  雷婧  周朋  任鑫 《第四纪研究》2020,(1):8-17

轨道尺度亚洲气候演化是古气候热点问题之一,其变化过程和机理对理解当前全球变暖下亚洲气候变化具有重要参考意义。最近几十年,基于黄土、石笋、湖泊等载体的轨道尺度亚洲气候重建研究获得显著进展,气候演化历史的基本框架已被构建,不同区域和指标记录之间的差异暗示了气候演化机理的复杂性。数值模拟作为研究气候动力学的重要工具之一,在轨道尺度亚洲气候变化中也得到广泛应用和快速发展。基于此,本文尝试对最近十数年轨道尺度亚洲气候演化机理的数值模拟研究做一简单总结和梳理。目前的数值模拟尚未对地质记录给出的各种变化特征、区域差异等现象,尤其是东亚夏季风的黄土和石笋差异、季风和干旱气候的耦合关系等,给出合理解释。因此,在未来工作中亟须涵盖多轨道旋回的高分辨率瞬变试验,结合良好定年的重建记录,以期对轨道尺度亚洲气候变化机理获得更深入完整的认识。  相似文献   

凸轮型冲击旋压钻头成孔机理研究          下载免费PDF全文

博坤  孙思远  张永光 《探矿工程》2020,47(11):77-82

挤密钻头是潜孔锤冲击挤密钻进技术的关键所在，其结构形式直接影响着钻进效率、成孔质量和应用效果。应用非线性有限元理论，对动载荷作用下土体的弹塑性和压缩性的变化规律进行了分析。研究发现，常规钻头在冲击挤密钻进过程中产生的桩效应是导致钻进效率降低的主要原因。为了克服桩效应的影响，利用ANSYS/LSDYNA软件对阶梯式钻头和凸轮旋压钻头的钻进过程进行数值模拟分析，并通过实钻试验进行验证。数值模拟分析和试验结果均表明：凸轮旋压钻头能够有效避免钻进过程中土体回弹问题，降低桩效应对钻进效率的影响。试验结果与模拟结果相吻合，表明数值模拟的结果相对可靠。  相似文献   

盾构隧道下穿管道施工引起的管-土相互作用研究     

可文海  管凌霄  刘东海  邓建林  李科  徐长节 《岩土力学》2020,41(1):221-228

采用Loganathan公式研究了盾构隧道下穿管道施工引起的地下管道处土体竖向位移，利用考虑土中剪力传递的Pasternak模型模拟管-土相互作用，运用修正Vlasov模型中的迭代流程计算出Pasternak模型的关键参数——弹性系数k与剪切系数gs。将计算结果与已有文献结果及工程监测数据进行对比，深入分析了迭代求解k、gs值的Pasternak模型与传统模型的计算差异，并进一步研究了土中剪力、管道与隧道的夹角、土体弹性模量及隧道半径的变化对管-土相互作用的影响。研究结果表明：迭代求解的k、gs值能提升Pasternak模型的精确度；土中剪力对管道竖向位移计算值的影响可达15.3%；随着管道与隧道夹角的减小，管道的竖向位移增大、弯矩减小；土体弹性模量与隧道半径的增大均会增加管道的竖向位移和弯矩。  相似文献   

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model     

Bingdi Wang  Qingquan Li  Xinyong Shen  Lili Dong  Fang Wang  Tao Wang  Xinzhong Liang 《地球科学进展》2020,35(3):319-330

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.  相似文献   

Modelling the poroelastoplastic behaviour of soils subjected to internal erosion by suffusion     

Quentin Rousseau  Giulio Sciarra  Rachel Gelet  Didier Marot 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(1):117-136

Granular soils subjected to seepage flow may suffer suffusion, ie, a selective internal erosion. Extending the classical approach of poromechanics, we deduce a new form of the Clausius-Duhem inequality accounting for dissipation due to suffusion, and we deduce restrictions on the constitutive laws of the soil. We suggest (a) a possible coupling between the seepage forces and the suffusion kinetics and (b) an extension of an existing elastoplastic model for the skeleton mechanical behaviour. Numerical integrations of the elastoplastic model are carried out under drained axisymmetric triaxial and oedometric conditions. As a result, we prove that the extended model is able to qualitatively reproduce the suffusion induced strains and the strength reduction experimentally observed. Predictions on the oedometric behaviour of suffusive soils are also provided.  相似文献